U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed that President of the Republic of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, take on a mediating role in resolving the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

A genuine Peacemaker

On May 5, according to the office of the Turkish president, during a phone conversation, Donald Trump proposed that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan assume the role of mediator in establishing peace in Ukraine. The Turkish leader agreed.

During the conversation, they also discussed Erdoğan’s upcoming visit to Washington, Trump’s visit to Türkiye, the ceasefire in Gaza, and other issues.

Why did Donald Trump make this proposal specifically to the President of Türkiye?

Trump built much of his election campaign on criticising Joe Biden’s stance, holding him responsible for igniting the conflict in Ukraine, and promised to bring immediate peace. However, it soon became clear that achieving this in practice was far from easy. Too much blood has been shed, the knot of contradictions tied during the conflict is too tight, and powerful groups on both sides of the frontline have been pushing for the war to continue.

Today, several countries—such as China, Brazil, and others—could potentially act as mediators. However, Türkiye holds a real advantage: it is one of the few countries that already has a successful track record of mediating in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In fact, Ankara’s list of achievements in this regard is arguably the most impressive. Türkiye facilitated prisoner exchanges and played a key role in opening the Black Sea grain corridor.

Under the agreement signed in July 2022 with the mediation of Türkiye and the United Nations, Ukraine was able to safely export nearly 33 million tonnes of grain.

It was in Istanbul, after the war had already begun, that peace negotiations were held—talks that came close to ending the hostilities. As Hurriyet reported, had Ukraine not walked away from the negotiating table in Istanbul under Western pressure, “Türkiye would have brokered peace within the first three months of the war.”

In March of this year, Erdoğan stated: “Türkiye is ready to host a negotiation process for a lasting solution to the conflict in Ukraine.” The Turkish president emphasised that Ankara has sought a just and durable peace from the very beginning of the conflict and continues to stand by this position.

Türkiye’s strategically important role in the region was also recently acknowledged by the new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz.

Interested in peace

Immediately after returning to the White House, Donald Trump began actively working to establish a negotiation process with Russia. There are various theories as to why he is doing this. Trump himself claims that his primary concern is stopping the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Some experts believe that Trump’s team views the continued conflict in Ukraine as detrimental to U.S. national interests. Today, the White House appears to prioritise confrontation with China, and the Republican administration reportedly intends to redirect resources freed up by a potential truce in Ukraine toward that strategic front.

However, the initially vigorous talks concerning the Russia-Ukraine war have clearly stalled in recent weeks.

On May 7, during the Munich Security Conference session held in Washington, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated that Russia is “asking for too much.” Commenting on that remark, Trump said, “He may be right.”

The Russian side, for its part, places full blame for the lack of progress in resolving the conflict on Kyiv. That is why, amid this negotiating deadlock, Erdoğan's role as a mediator has become particularly significant. Thanks to his balanced foreign policy, the Turkish president is able to maintain dialogue with both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. This is a crucial factor in the current highly charged situation. As the Turkish channel A Haber reports: “The proposal for Türkiye’s mediation shows that Putin trusts it.”

At the same time, Erdoğan is known for his flexible diplomacy. Even in moments of sharp disagreement, he avoids crossing red lines that should not be crossed. His relationships with certain EU and NATO member states—some of which have at times acted quite unfriendly—are evidence of this approach.

The entire history of Türkiye’s often difficult relations with Brussels also reflects the Turkish leader’s balanced approach. At the same time, President Erdoğan can be remarkably firm and uncompromising when needed. Türkiye is currently at the height of its foreign policy success—a fact of great importance in the context of the upcoming peace talks.

Moreover, as a country with a dynamically developing economy, Türkiye maintains strong trade ties with both Ukraine and Russia. It has a genuine interest in peace and stability in the region. Ankara also enjoys good relations with China, which has likewise called for an end to the war and a peaceful resolution of the crisis—one that preserves Ukraine’s territorial integrity while addressing the root causes of the conflict.

At the same time, U.S. President Trump views Erdoğan as a strong leader and has expressed great respect for the Turkish president.

Immediately to Istanbul!

It seems that Türkiye’s renewed assumption of the mediator role in the conflict resolution has already yielded results. During the night of May 10–11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow’s readiness to begin direct negotiations with Kyiv. The designated location for the talks is Istanbul, and they are set to start on May 15.

Donald Trump has already commented: “A potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine! Think of the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be saved as this never ending ‘bloodbath’ hopefully comes to an end.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a phone call with Putin, confirmed his readiness to host the negotiations in Istanbul—more precisely, to resume them at the point where they were previously interrupted.

“A window of opportunity for peace has opened, and a comprehensive ceasefire would provide the necessary conditions for peace talks,” said Erdoğan. However, his final remarks deserve special attention. The United States (specifically, Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg), EU leaders, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insist that peace negotiations should begin only after a complete ceasefire. Russia, on the other hand, has proposed direct talks with Ukraine without any preconditions.

The ceasefire remains the main stumbling block. A total halt to hostilities requires a complex mechanism and considerable political will, and recent attempts to establish truces during Easter and on May 9 were far from successful. At the very least, both sides accused each other of violating the agreements.

For now, the situation regarding the resumption of peace talks in Istanbul remains complicated and uncertain. However, reports indicate that Donald Trump has made another statement on Truth Social: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.”

Erdoğan, as reported by CNN Türk, also told French President Emmanuel Macron during a conversation: “A historic turning point has been reached in efforts to end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia — we must seize this opportunity.”

The intense confrontation between Russia and Ukraine may now be approaching its climax. Whether the two sides can reach an agreement in Istanbul will determine not only the lives and futures of Ukrainians and Russians suffering from the war, but also the fate of humanity. After all, the continuation of the conflict will mean its almost inevitable escalation, with a serious threat of escalating into a Third World War.

For its part, Türkiye is indeed prepared to do everything within its power to prevent that from happening.

Source: caliber.az